Hello Earl...turn NORTH before Thursday, please?

[Captain Smollett]

Keeping a close eye on this one; if that northward/northeastward turn does not happen Thursday, we are gonna get hit.

Cat 4 this evening.  

[CapnK]

Y'all 'll be awright...  Get ready for that west-side wind, though, and how it's gonna clock around as the storm travels by with you on the weak side...

 

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Thought for the Day:

"Hurricane Watchin' ain't as much fun, when you live aboard." - Mark Twayne.












.../me crosses fingers and thinks to whistle to the West tomorrow...

[Captain Smollett]

Y'all 'll be awright...   Get ready for that west-side wind, though, and how it's gonna clock around as the storm travels by with you on the weak side...

 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thought for the Day:

"Hurricane Watchin' ain't as much fun, when you live aboard." - Mark Twayne.












.../me crosses fingers and thinks to whistle to the West tomorrow...

Keep whistling, please!   

From this morning's forecast discussion on the NHC site:

INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF EARL.  THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS
TO HOW CLOSE THE HURRICANE WILL COME TO THE U.S. EAST COAST.

{emphasis added}

Prediction for NW movement is pretty solid, but the TURN is what's a guess at this point.  If he doesn't not turn, Cat 4 sliding up the river, baby.  And, hey, I don't particularly like the idea of having to deal with making decisions/preps for this in the middle of the night...I'd prefer to be out of here and "in place" before dark on Thursday if I am going to have to move.

TS force winds cover about 300 miles, so that Friday "dot" (see below) WILL be hitting us to some degree regardless...

The trend in the forecast is for the track to be moved westward...compare this pic to the last one.  Where's he gonna actually BE Friday at, say 6 - 10 am?

[CapnK]

Yup, that's how it works...   

Wave height map from  http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/waves/viewer.shtml?-US_eastcoast- :

[s/v Faith]

Man I hate the waiting....

  Guys, please do be careful and know that you are in my prayers....

[Oldrig]

Prayers and incantations to all of on the East Coast to the south of me.

I'll be stripping the boat, rigging an extra safety line and watching the reports. My boat is in a little salt pond on Buzzards Bay -- it's a pretty good hurricane hole but, darn, I hate to test it. (My catboat survived Hurricane Bob unscathed, but now I've got a keelboat.)

--Joe

[s/v Faith]

Kurt,

  What are you planning to do?  Will you get underway and head for your hidey-hole, or just lash down the palmtrees on the docks and ride it out?

[CapnK]

The way it looks right now, I won't need to do anything. Except check the surf tomorrow...

[Jeremy]

Over time, the forecasts have trended westward, unfortunately.  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2010/graphics/al07/loop_5W.shtml

The thing may miss us, but I'm tied up on Thursday and Friday with work so have to prepare for the worst now. 

I have two boats to prepare, both on moorings, my mother's (fiberglass) Herreshoff 12 1/2 in Mattapoisett (on Buzzard's bay) and my Rhodes Meridian in Boston Harbor.

The H12 survived Bob just fine (pretty much a direct hit on Mattapoisett), and its mooring is suitable for a much larger boat.  The chief risk is another boat coming down on top of her.  In any event, I plan to add a second mooring pennant, secured with a separate swivel to the chain below the ball, and running from the bow cleat to the keel stepped mast.  There's PVC chafing gear on the main pennant (durable but a heat trap); chafing gear on the second will be breathable.

The boat in Boston is on a rented mooring, that has way too short a pennant (in a dense mooring field).  I'm planning to replace it with two longer 3/4 inch nylon pennants with chafing gear, with at least one running from a bow chock to the jib winches aft.  (don't want to tie off to the mast as it's deck stepped).  Query whether to keep all three, with the new (safety) pennants looser than the main one.

I'll also strip the decks, sails, booms etc to reduce windage (but don't plan to remove external halyards).  I don't presently have an electrical system on either boat, so don't have an auto bilge pump - I could scramble to add one to the Meridian, but frankly, if either boat is holed in a collision, I don't think a bilge pump would do much anyway.

Anyone have any critiques/suggestions on this plan?

With wishes for safe harbors for all of you.

J

[Captain Smollett]

Over time, the forecasts have trended westward, unfortunately.  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2010/graphics/al07/loop_5W.shtml

Yep, that's what had my attention yesterday.  The most recent (11:00 EDT) discussion had the forecast track moving slightly back to the East.  In the discussion, ALL 'official tracks' have been to the West of the models, including this one.

I'm wondering if Earl has started that NE turn; that's my hope. I did read that the ridge that was preventing the turn has already moved over.  Again...here's hoping.   

Another thing I noticed is that yesterday, the 'line' between TS watch and H watch was well to the South of us; today, the line between TS and H has been pushed North and we are now right on that dividing line.  Storm still demands great respect, but it's looking like the most recent trends in the data suggest that we may be able to let our breath out soon.

Hopefully...   

I'll also strip the decks, sails, booms etc to reduce windage (but don't plan to remove external halyards).

Interesting.  I have never heard of anyone removing halyards.  That common prep up in your parts?

In any case, good luck Jeremy (and all others on the coast).  If it misses US, you guys are unfortunately still in the bullseye.

[Jeremy]

Interesting.  I have never heard of anyone removing halyards.  That common prep up in your parts?

Nope.  I just read an article advising to do as much - seems like a major hassle with limited return to me. 

[Tim]

Good luck to you all out there, and Jeremy if I hadn't already said it, you have good taste in boats.

[Captain Smollett]

Schoolwork project today: scale drawing of Hurricane Earl.  In case you cannot read it, black=eye, red=hurricane force, green=tropical storm force.  The scale is 1 cm = 20 nm.

Boatschooling ROCKS!   

[Captain Smollett]

Still waiting to make final decision until tomorrow am, but as of 11 pm discussion and such, unless something drastically changes tonight, we will be staying here in the marina.

I've got three anchors and a 45 lb kellet on hand if I do bug out; my selected anchorage is about 2 hours from here.  But...hoping to not have to go.

Below shows NWS windspeed prediction for about as bad as it's going to get on us...we've got about 8 hours of 28-30 kt predicted, not unlike just about every nor'easter that blows through Nov. - March.

[maxiSwede]

hurricanes definetely seem no fun at all! 


Good luck to all of you in the potential 'path of the wrath'... of it! 

[Captain Smollett]

Just FYI...things are supposed to start winding up here 17:00-19:00 and go for a few hours.  If by chance we lose I'net or Cell service, I'll update ya'll as soon as I can.

My new favorite picture for planning (that's LOCAL forecast for us, right here, direct from NWS):

[CapnK]

Just got our first hurricane rain of the year...

Hope it's also the last.

PS - John y'all sure lucked out. You are in the "fun" part of a hurricane... 

[CharlieJ]

Believe me, we've been checking on Earl morning and evening, and several times in between. Looks as if we dodged a bullet on this one. Hope he's all for this year!!!!!

[Captain Smollett]

Believe me, we've been checking on Earl morning and evening, and several times in between. Looks as if we dodged a bullet on this one. Hope he's all for this year!!!!!

Yep, kind of a non-issue here so far.  NWS said we'd have 30+ kt by this time...and it's blowing about ten.   

Earlier, about 4:30, we got some showers, the wind picked up with some decent gusts and we thought it was starting...then...nothing.

Gonna go hit the shower; we'll see what it's doing after that.

[Oldrig]

Looks like you guys made out OK.

We've still got a Hurricane Warning posted for Cape Cod and the Islands. Here's hoping we fare as well.

I stripped the boat yesterday, put out an extra pendant on the mooring and hauled the kayaks and dinghy.

Best of luck to everybody in Earl's possible path!

--Joe